Did hydrogen fuel cell cars miss their chance?
February 17, 2022Recent study results suggest that FCVs are riding a thin line and that the opportunity is fading.
The results of a recently published study indicate that the opportunity for hydrogen fuel cell cars and that the window is closing for heavy-duty trucks too.
The study indicated that it might be too late for H2 to play a substantial role in road transportation.
The study results were published in Nature Electronics. The study was lead authored by Patrick Plötz, from the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research. Plötz claimed not to be affected by any conflicting interest that would have affected his prediction of the future of H2 in road transportation. He argued that battery electric vehicle improvements in both charging speed and range have negated the primary selling points of hydrogen fuel cell cars.
Vehicles powered by H2 have always stood out from battery electric counterparts because of fast refueling time and long ranges. As a result, Plötz is now recommending that policymakers should place their focus on the promotion of battery electric vehicles (EVs), instead of splitting their efforts by hanging in there to see what potential H2 might still have to offer.
Hydrogen fuel cell cars haven’t seen nearly the adoption rate that EVs have experienced until now.
EVs have already proven to be considerably more popular than fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in the passenger vehicle category. While some data indicates that FCVs saw a higher growth rate in sales than EVs in 2021, the total numbers remain substantially higher among those that plug in to recharge batteries.
The study pointed out that by the start of 2021, there were around 25,000 FCVs on the road in the form of passenger cars. Moreover, there were two FCV models available in that category, the Toyota Mirai and the Hyundai Nexo. Worldwide, there were about 540 stations, said data cited by the study.
Comparatively, the study authors predicted that by the start of this year, there were probably around 15 million battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the category. Even if FCVs took off explosively last year, it is very unlikely that they would have been able to even approach a catch-up rate in one year.
While hydrogen fuel cell cars have missed their shot, the opportunity for trucks is also dwindling.
Many vehicle-makers that had already abandoned hydrogen fuel cell cars have been willing to hang in there for the potential H2 has to offer trucking. The reason is that electric trucks require massive battery packs, which has been a substantially limiting factor. Still, regardless of this substantial limitation, EVs still outnumber FCVs in trucks.
Battery electric range currently remains too limited to be practical for use in long-haul trucking. That said, a nice market may remain there for FCVs, said the study. That said, this advantage will need to be grabbed up soon or it could be missed.
Upcoming megawatt charging systems might bring EVs the advantage they’re seeking in that category tool. What has yet to be know, said the study, is whether it would be more expensive to use than hydrogen fuel cells in trucks. It could be that the total cost of ownership will come to be the deciding factor for which technology will power the trucking industry, said the study report.
“Policymakers and industry need to decide quickly whether the fuel cell electric truck niche is large enough to sustain further hydrogen technology development, or whether it is time to cut their losses and to focus efforts elsewhere,” concluded the study.
Even as promise may be fading for hydrogen fuel cell cars, the opportunity is there in other areas.
Even though the study authors stated that even as they watched the window close for the potential of hydrogen fuel cell cars and potentially for trucks too, other industries have the potential to be huge with H2. They pointed specifically to shipping, aviation and steel-making as areas where H2 will take off.
Most major automakers agree with the researchers. Volkswagen has already stated that it doesn’t believe H2 makes any sense in passenger vehicles. GM has also shut off any efforts of using H2 technology in passenger vehicles, even as it moves forward in using it for trucking and in military applications. It is also looking into using the zero-emission fuel for portable generators and for fast EV charging stations.
On the other hand, Toyota, Hyundai and Kia are all continuing to keep hydrogen fuel cell cars in development, seeing potential in their use for passenger vehicles where the researchers do not.
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Of course not a word about raw material availability ie Li, Co and their negative impact on the environment. In addition not a word about grid capability to support numerous high capacity chargers. BEV are not sustainable long term. H2 FCEV is a sustainable solution.
Not to mention the fact that batteries have a limited life and are expensive to replace.
Their substantial weight causes energy losses every time the car accelerates, which is usually disregarded by proponents of BEV citing better energy efficiency.
Moreover, the price of green hydrogen is likely to plummet due to economies of scale, once the large quantities are generated which will be required by industry, renewable-power suppliers, homes and transport.
I believe the future for FCEVs is bright, with the expanding network of filling stations being installed in Western Europe, California and elsewhere.
Exactly. Why doesn’t every H2-advocating resource/company on the planet shout that argument from the rooftops? BEVs exist because of one guy with an uncompromising vision. Who is going to do that for H2? The alternative is to acquiesce to mining trillions of tons of raw material, drive it around for a while, and then throw it away.
Bingo, but this study isn’t really credible. Not a single major news source covered it. Only the hydrogen haters seemed to cover it in mass. So, I agree with you and most automakers that BEV’S are only a stopgap between ICE and FCEV’S.
Absolutely agree with this… but do respectfully question the level of damage resulting from BEV deployment where necessary due to the fact that Li-ion is a temporary solution that will inevitably be replaced by Solid State Batteries. I am uncertain of the GHE created by the current printed layers in these batteries, but guessing not an issue, hence the global drive to commercialize at reasonable cost for the BEV market especially.
Rewewable Energy (wind, solar, geothermal, etc) generates electricity used to drive Electrolysis based Hydrogen production stored/distributed via pipelines creates a perfect carbon negative energy ecosystem to upgrade our current natural gas based energy storage system.
Interim while the Renewable Energy infrastructure is being deployed to support this, we can still leverage our Natural Gas resouces to fuel transportion with carbon negative Green hydrogen from the responsible and even profitable combination of Steam Methane Reforming based production combined with full CCSU such that the CO2 is then processed into Carbon Black or Carbon Flake and used in concrete for concrete/building/bridges, roads, municipal water treatment plants, etc.
Mining materials and then recycling those materials leads to environmental issues while also currently depending on fossil fuel based high energy consumption just to deploy the technology (no matter how severe, we must protect the planet as if we ourselves will live to be millions of years old).
I agree. The availability of the resources cannot support limitless production of batteries. Fast charging shortens their already short life cycle and recycling the metals is cost prohibitive with today’s price points. My conclusion is that with both battery metal resource depletion combined with the increasing price for liquid fuels, the future of a global economy, regardless of what your fuel source might be, appears to be headed for irreversible contraction.
All these “studies” should all be taken with a major grain of salt. Most of them don’t take into account investment into hydrogen stations and production which is coming. Also, none of these mentioned that there are far more than just the Hyundai group and Toyota investing into FCEV’S. JLR, DAIMLER, STELLANTIS, RENAULT, RIVERSIMPLE, GLICKENHAUS, MAZDA, HOPIUM, and many others are investing into FCEV’S. So, I completely disagree with this study and considering none of the actual major worldwide new sources covered this I believe that this is not an important study. Only the “Tesla lovers” think this isn’t a load of you know what. In conclusion, no, the window isn’t fading for FCEV’S, infact we’re only a few years until they absolutely take off.
A good article and lots of good comments. Many of these issues arose when the automobile was invented and with alarming skepticism. There are many “niche” societal pros and cons. In a densely populated area where users drive short distances in stop and go and charging networks are plentiful a BEV may be practical. For those drivers’ needs that need or want to “get out of Dodge” H2 may be the way to go. Those that like road trips and don’t want to deal with the current shortcomings of the BEV, there is an option, and it is a matter of choice. There is no all or nothing on the table yet. As you know from many published articles many countries are preparing for H2. There is also an underlying and maybe perhaps monetary or political undertone that isn’t portrayed. Li, Petroleum, PT, and many other rare earth elements and even energy are potentially “sanctionable” commodities. Remember the oil embargos of the 1970’s … well, maybe not many of the readers; any way those that controlled the oil controlled the economy. Sanctions against countries separated the have and have not when one controlling country would apply economic pressures on another country that wasn’t “participating or behaving the way of the controlling power wanted. As of now for major world powers, economies are basically petroleum based. What will the future hold? What will be the controlling economic/monetary driving force? Who knows? Will it be precious metals or valued raw materials, AI, food? water? Well, a little off subject here is a hyper link of a hint to come as it applies to the U.S. Economy and where it is going with H2.
Just an after thought. With many major countries developing their own H2 energy supply, will it lead to a one world monetary base? H2 Crypto credits? Just say’n.
BEV capabilities are dramatically down in winter time, when parked outside and they loose capacity when they are not in use for long time. A nightmare for many users not having a garage to keep the car in warm condition all the time. And, that is right, BEV is not sustainable technology because of the materials. On the other hand, that is right as well, ramp-up of the FECV is slow because of the cost of ownership.
The ” zero CO2 ” mobility will simply come from ICE running H2: . R&D is sorting out “emssion free” versions (meaning zero NOx), and industry doesn’t need any invesment for ramp-up. H2 price at the distribution station will go down with blue H2, and natural H2.
This subject of hydrogen-fuel cell (HFC) vs battery technology has all the makings of the Beta vs VHS debacle of the 80’s. Contrary to the anti-hydrogen fuel cell forces world-wide, aided by a media which propagates many falsehoods about this technology, we know that HFC technology is superior to current battery technology in every comparable aspects of performance and benefits, not the least of which are serious concerns about ecological and environmental effects. It comes as no surprise that the latter concerns are never addressed by those who are dedicated to disparaging HFC technology. And like the inferior VHS, there is a biased concerted media blitz which promotes battery technology, given the power of their financial backing by elements who have heavily invested in this technology. It’s a crying shame that the history of past poor choices does not serve any useful purpose with regards to the direction into which we are propelled by power brokers.
The article does not even mention the capabilities of Renewable Natural Gas as a fuel for transportation, especially as a replacement for diesel fuel in trucks. India and several other countries utilize natural gas in automobiles also. RNG is a non-fossil fuel that is produced by processing captured biogas from organic waste sites; farms, municipal waste, landfill gas, and food waste. This biogas is otherwise released to the atmosphere as Greenhouse Gas. The fact that RNG can use the existing storage/transportation infrastructure presently used for fossil natural gas makes it an answer that is available today without the necessity for a massive new infrastructure required by Total Electric or Hydrogen Fuel Cell. The existing Internal Combustion Engines can be used after modification of the fuel system to run on RNG rather than diesel. It’s not Rocket Science.
A major advantage is almost never precisely mentioned- therefore I also don’t know the very details.
System weight appears to me a major issue and potentially one of the biggest advantages of fuel cell electric vehicles.
It does make a huge difference whether you are carrying/ driving around 500 Kg or even more with a battery power pack or not, doesn’t it?
Even more surprising that even FCV manufacturers are not advertising any details and comparisons.
Could be worth an article ^^